2016年12月英语四级真题第1套 Part III Section C (2)

In the past, falling oil prices have given a boost to the world economy, but recent forecasts for global growth have been toned down, even as oil prices sink lower and lower.

转折类 but however yet nevertheless nonetheless still though

这个 opening sentence 通过 temporal contrast (past vs recent) 加 but 转折,implicitly 提出了文章的 central puzzle:为什么 historically reliable 的油价-增长 positive correlation 现在 doesn't hold anymore?言外之意是传统 economic mechanism 可能已经 fundamentally changed。这为全文的 thesis 奠定基础——即传统 linkage has weakened。这种 problematizing opening 是议论文的 classic structure,用 apparent contradiction 来 justify 后续的 in-depth exploration。

Some experts say there are still good reasons to believe cheap oil should heat up the world economy.

模糊限制语 Some experts say some experts many researchers certain scholars a number of several studies some analysts

这里的 some experts say 表面上是 introduce 支持低油价 stimulative effect 的 optimistic camp,但 implied meaning 是这只是 one side of the debate。通过 hedging,作者 distance 自己 from this view,暗示后文会 present evidence 说明这个 optimistic outlook 并不 comprehensive。这种 rhetorical balance 服务于文章 thesis:虽然 traditional theory 仍有 validity (some experts 代表),但 reality 更 complex (为后面的 but not all/however 等 counterarguments 铺路)。

But doesn't the extra money in the pockets of those countries' consumers mean an equal loss in oil-producing countries, canceling out the gains? Not necessarily, say economic researcher Sara Johnson.

反问句 But doesn't... canceling out the gains? Not necessarily But doesn't Isn't it true that Wouldn't this mean Does that mean Shouldn't we expect Don't you think

这个 rhetorical question 表面是提出 zero-sum concern (进口国获益等于出口国损失),但 not necessarily 的 answer immediately 否定了这个 oversimplified assumption。言外之意是:经济 dynamics 比简单的 arithmetic cancellation 更 nuanced——产油国的 reserve funds 可以 buffer 短期 loss。这服务于文章 thesis 的 complexity:低油价的 net effect 不是简单 positive 也不是简单 negative,需要 consider 多层 mechanisms。通过这个 mini-refutation,作者 maintain 了 cheap oil 仍有 some benefits 的 argument,为后面 introduce more substantial concerns 做铺垫。

But not all oil producers have big reserves. In Venezuela, collapsing oil prices have sent its economy into free-fall.

转折类 But not all but not all however, not every yet not everyone though not always not necessarily all some... but not others

这个简短段落通过 but not all 加 Venezuela concrete example,implicitly 在 undermine 第3段 的 optimistic cushioning argument。言外之意是:虽然 some 产油国有 reserves 可以 buffer,但相当一部分没有,他们的 economic collapse (free-fall) 会 drag down global economy。这是文章 turning point——从 第2段-3 相对 positive 的 analysis 转向 第5段 开始的 negative effects dominate 的 argument。这种 incremental revelation (先说有 cushion,再说 not all 有) 是 persuasive writing 的 effective technique,gradually 引导读者接受 thesis 的 complexity。

Economist Carl Weinberg believes the negative effects of plunging oil prices are overwhelming the positive effects of cheaper oil.

程度副词 overwhelming outweigh overshadow dominate dwarf eclipse far exceed

Weinberg 的 overwhelming negative effects claim 是文章 thesis 的 explicit articulation。言外之意是:尽管 第2段-3 提到的 positive mechanisms 仍然 exist (consumer savings, reserves buffer),但 第4段-5 揭示的 negative forces (producer collapse, trade decline) 在 magnitude 上 far greater。Overwhelming 这个词 choice 本身就在 argue:这不是 balanced situation,而是 negative side 占 decisive advantage。这 directly supports 文章主旨——传统 positive linkage has weakened。后文 第6段-7 会 elaborate 为什么 negative 压倒 positive 的具体 mechanisms。

Sara Johnson acknowledges that the global economic benefit from a fall in oil prices today is likely lower than it was in the past.

对比类 lower than it was in the past lower than in the past less than before smaller than it used to be weaker than previously not as strong as it was diminished from

Sara Johnson 的 acknowledges (本身是 concessive verb) 加 lower than past 的 temporal comparison,言外之意是:即使是 第3段 defend 过 positive effects 的同一个 expert,现在也 admit 这些 benefits 已经 shrunk。这是 crucial concession,因为当 previously optimistic source 都 acknowledge decline,就 strongly validates 文章 thesis。Lower 暗示 quantitative decrease,而 likely 添加适度 hedging,保持 academic tone。这为 第6段 后半段和 第7段 详细 explain structural reasons (more producers, cautious consumers) 提供 transition,serve 文章整体 argument 的 logical progression。

Consumers, in the U.S. at least, are acting cautiously with the savings they're getting at the gas pump, as the memory of the recent great recession is still fresh in their mind.

情态词 acting cautiously behaving prudently proceeding carefully responding hesitantly moving tentatively reacting conservatively approaching warily

Acting cautiously 加 recession memory 的 explanation,言外之意是:第2段 描述的 consumer spending stimulus 在 real world 大打折扣,因为 psychological scarring 导致 saving instead of spending。这是文章 layering 多个 reasons for weakened linkage 的又一层——不仅 producer side 有问题 (第4段-5),consumer side response 也 subdued。Fresh in their mind 生动地 explain 为什么 cautiously,增强 argument 的 psychological realism。这 further supports 第6段 的 lower benefit claim,serve 整体 thesis by showing stimulative effect 在 demand side 也 compromised。

And a number of oil-producing countries are trimming their gasoline subsidies and raising taxes, so the net savings for global consumers is not as big as the oil price plunge might suggest.

委婉表达 not as big as... might suggest not as big as... suggest not as much as it seems less than it appears smaller than one might think not to the extent expected not as significant as assumed

Not as big as... might suggest 的 formula explicitly 在说:虽然 oil prices plunged dramatically (seeming windfall),但 actual consumer savings 被 policy changes (subsidy cuts, tax increases) significantly 削减了。言外之意是:不能 naively 看 oil price drop 就 assume equivalent consumer benefit,必须 account for government fiscal adjustments。这是文章最后一个 layer of explanation for weakened linkage——除了 producer problems, consumer caution,还有 policy-level offsets。这 completes 文章的 multi-dimensional argument,fully justify 第5段 Weinberg 的 overwhelming negative effects claim,solidify 整体 thesis。