As the American population grows, so does the number of American moms. But, more than a century after Mother's Day became an official holiday, even as that number increases, the share of the American population who are mothers is at the lowest point in a quarter century.
It's frequently noted that fertility rates are falling sharply in richer countries. But the less-observed consequence of this trend is that the decline in births can also mean a decline in motherhood in America. According to my analysis of data from the Census Bureau, the decline of American motherhood is real, occurring very quickly, and may continue for some time yet.
Not only are moms making up less of the population, but their characteristics are changing too, and in a way that might be linked to their proportional decline. Moms today tend to be older than in the past. Just looking at recent years, the change in age-specific birth rates has been drastic.
In just the past few years, the peak childbearing age range for American women has advanced from that of 25-29 to that of 30-34. Meanwhile, childbearing among women under 20 has fallen by half or more, while childbearing among women 35 and older is rising.
One positive consequence of this age shift is that a larger proportion of new mothers are economically prepared to raise children. Less positively, however, many women find that, as they age, they can't have as many kids as they would like. Plus, having children later in life can increase the risk of health complications. These finer points aside, one major consequence of the older-moms trend is that fewer years of a woman's life are spent as a mother. This means that, at any given time, a larger share of women, and thus of the whole population, will report not having children in government surveys. In other words, later motherhood means less motherhood.
Even as motherhood rates decline, Mother's Day, of course, will endure. In fact, despite the demographic shift, retail spending on the holiday appears to be rising. It is hard to say if Mother's Day spending is rising more than one would expect, given that the American population keeps growing, but one factor might be that the proportion of women who are the mothers of adult children is rising. And those adult children may spend more generously when it comes to celebrating the moms they no longer live with.