2002年 考研英语（旧卷）阅读理解（四选一） 第 3 篇 · 31–35 题答案与解析

The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 是问一个具体的客观事实——「这次油价涨是为啥」，没有 infer/imply 等推断词，故为细节题。

The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 是一个不完整陈述句，主语 The main reason，for 引导后置定语限定 reason，is 后接选项。结构平铺直叙，无陷阱。

• A)无中生有

  global inflation 在全文从未被列为「这次油价上涨的原因」；相反 it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation 明确说这次没有大宗商品通胀背景。

• B)✓ 正确
  • OPEC agreed to supply-cuts↔reduction in supply

  预判答案是「供应减少」，reduction in supply 与之逐字对应，是 supply-cuts 的标准名词化改写，故选 B。

• C)以偏概全

  Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term 显示经济增长只是短期里「可能再推高」的力量，而非这次上涨的主因；主因仍是 OPEC agreed to supply-cuts。

• D)以偏概全

  The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports 中 another push up 一词点明 Iraq 暂停出口只是「又一记推力」，并非「主」因；主因依然是 OPEC agreed to supply-cuts。

It can be inferred from the text 直接出现 inferred，说明答案不会在原文逐字写出，而要从原文事实做一步逻辑延伸。

It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if 主句 It can be inferred…，that 引导宾语从句，从句里 if 引导条件状语从句、其内容被切到选项里。考生易把 if 漏掉，请明确：选哪个，就意味着「哪个条件成立时」petrol 价才会大涨。

• A)与原文相反

  even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past 明说原油「再大涨」也只是 muted effect（被削弱的影响），不可能让 retail dramatically 上涨。

• B)答非所问

  P3 讨论的是 taxes ↔ crude oil ↔ retail 三者，未把 commodity prices 纳入到「让 retail dramatically 涨」的链条；P5 提到 commodity-price inflation 只是在说宏观背景，与 retail of petrol 无直接因果。

• C)无中生有

  全文未把 consumption rises 与 retail price dramatically 直接挂钩；rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973 反而强调富国消费下降，使 retail 对油价不敏感。

• D)✓ 正确
  • taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price↔oil taxes rise

  预判「动税才会让零售价大涨」，oil taxes rise 把这个反向推一步翻成 if 条件，与预判精确对应，故选 D。

The estimates in Economic Outlook show that 直接问该报告 show 出什么客观结论，没有推断词，是典型细节题。

The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries 主语 The estimates，介词短语 in Economic Outlook 修饰 estimates，show 后 that 引导宾语从句，in rich countries 又是从句里的地点状语。结构稍长但无逻辑陷阱。

• A)张冠李戴

  oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive 明确说「重工业更密集」的是 emerging economies，不是 Q33 所问的 rich countries。

• B)偷换概念

  That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980 里的 income loss 是 1974/1980 那两次大事件的损失，且只用作量级对比；原文未说富国当前的 income loss「主要源于」原油价波动。

• C)张冠李戴

  oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—…could be more seriously squeezed 中被 seriously squeezed 的是 emerging economies，不是 rich countries 的 manufacturing industry。

• D)✓ 正确
  • this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP↔oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

  预判是「影响极小」，oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP 用含蓄否定把极小程度直接表述为「无显著影响」，与预判逐字对齐。

We can draw a conclusion from the text that 没有任何具体的定位抓手，问的是「从整篇文章能得出的结论」，按主旨题路径处理。

We can draw a conclusion from the text that 主句 We can draw a conclusion，from the text 是状语，that 引导同位语从句解释 conclusion 的内容。结构清晰、无陷阱。

• A)✓ 正确
  • there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s↔oil-price shocks are less shocking now
  • One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices↔oil-price shocks are less shocking now

  预判是「这次冲击没那么猛」，oil-price shocks are less shocking now 把它直接翻成同义判断，且 P3P4P5 三段都可逐一为它背书，故选 A。

• B)过度推断

  Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline 反而承认了油价与通胀的历史关联；全文只是说「这次背景不同」，并未得出 inflation irrelevant 这种全称否定的结论。

• C)偷换概念

  Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption 只说节能降低了「消费量」、从而让经济对油价波动更不敏感，并不等于节能能「压低油价本身」。

• D)强加因果

  a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries 是富国经济结构演变的结果；oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted 也表明重工业是「转移」而非「萎缩」。原文未把原油价上涨当作重工业萎缩的原因。

From the text we can see that the writer seems 不问内容、只问 writer seems 是怎样的，正是态度题的典型问法。

From the text we can see that the writer seems 主句 we can see，that 引导宾语从句，from the text 为状语。结构平铺直叙，无陷阱。

• A)✓ 正确
  • there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s↔optimistic
  • not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices↔optimistic

  预判作者「偏乐观、不担心」，四个选项里只有 optimistic 是正向极性，故选 A。

• B)偷换概念

  sensitive 指「敏感的」，原文 less sensitive to swings in the oil price 是描述「富国经济对油价的敏感度」，并非作者本人的态度；态度题不能拿原文里描述别人/别物的词来贴作者。

• C)与原文相反

  gloomy 是负向，意为「悲观」；而原文 So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time? 是在反问「这次怎么不见悲观头条」，恰恰否定了 gloomy 的态度。

• D)与原文相反

  This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock 中的 scary 是描写「旧记忆」，作者立刻在 Yet there are good reasons to expect… 用 Yet 转折反驳这种 scared 情绪；全文走向恰恰是「不必怕」。